THESIS9 | GEOPOLITICS & CONFLICT

US President Donald Trump stated on 9 March that the decision to end American military operations against Iran would be made jointly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; a position he has since revised.

Speaking in a phone interview with the Times of Israel, Trump said the decision would be "mutual... a little bit," adding: "We've been talking. I'll make a decision at the right time, but everything's going to be taken into account." The remark came in direct response to a question about whether Netanyahu would have a say over when US strikes on Iran would cease.

Trump also told the publication that Iran "was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it," asserting that coordinated action with Netanyahu had forestalled that outcome: "We've worked together. We've destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel."

On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched a joint series of strikes against Iran, stating their objectives as inducing regime change and targeting Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. The operations, designated Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, involved strikes on more than 15,000 targets; US intelligence estimates indicate that nearly two-thirds of Iranian missiles and drones have been destroyed or damaged.

The assault came despite a period of indirect nuclear negotiations in mid-February. The surprise attack killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian officials. Subsequent strikes damaged military bases, government facilities, schools, hospitals, and cultural heritage sites.

The UK's House of Commons Library notes that the attacks followed the failure of indirect negotiations in February; the mediating Omani foreign minister had stated significant progress was being made, with Iran willing to make concessions, but Trump said he was "not thrilled" with the talks.

Following Khamenei's death, Mojtaba Khamenei, the late Supreme Leader's son, was elected as his successor by a body of 88 Iranian clerics. Trump opposed the selection directly. "He's going to have to get approval from us," Trump told ABC. "If he doesn't get approval from us, he's not going to last long."

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian subsequently laid out Tehran's conditions for ending the war, including compensation for the US-Israeli assault and firm international guarantees against future attacks. When Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff was asked by CNBC how the war might end, he said, "I don't know."

By late March, Trump's framing of how and when the conflict ends had shifted markedly. On 31 March, Trump said the US would leave Iran "very soon," citing a two-to-three-week timetable; his remarks came in response to a question about rising gas prices, which had reached a national average of $4 a gallon that day.

Trump told reporters: "We've set them back. It'll take 15 to 20 years for them to rebuild what we've done to them. They have no navy. They have no military. They have no air force. They have no telecommunications. They have no anti-aircraft systems. They have no leaders."

Then, on 3 April, Trump gave an interview to Time Magazine that directly contradicted his earlier statement about mutual decision-making with Netanyahu. "They'll do what I tell them," Trump said of Israel. "They've been a good team player. They'll stop when I stop. They'll stop unless they're provoked, in which case, they'll have no choice, but they'll stop when I stop."

The shifts in Trump's stated position reflect a broader tension in US-Israeli war aims. While both Washington and Jerusalem have vowed to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and view Iran's ballistic missile programme as a serious threat, this alignment exists alongside fundamental differences in the two countries' strategic outlooks, especially as the war has progressed.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that "the operation will continue without any time limit, as long as required, until we accomplish all objectives and achieve victory in the campaign"; a position at odds with Trump's two-to-three-week withdrawal signal.

On the diplomatic front, the conflict has produced significant friction within Western alliances. Spain closed its airspace to US planes involved in the Iran war; Secretary of State Marco Rubio responded by focusing criticism on the NATO partner. On 16 March, both China and US-aligned NATO nations in Europe rejected Trump's call to provide military support to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Trump called their refusal "a very foolish mistake."

Trump administration officials have offered diverse and changing explanations for starting the war: to pre-empt Iranian retaliation against US assets after an expected Israeli attack, to ward off an imminent threat, to destroy Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities, to prevent Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, to secure Iran's oil resources, and to achieve regime change by bringing the Iranian opposition to power.

With the conflict well into its second month, US intelligence and the Israeli Defence Forces have both claimed significant degradation of Iran's nuclear and missile programmes; the Israel Atomic Energy Commission stated that the setback "can continue indefinitely" as long as Iran is denied access to nuclear materials.

Whether a formal endpoint to the operation will emerge from Washington or Jerusalem; or from both; remains, as of the time of publication, an open question.

Thesis9 reports on geopolitics, science, and security affairs. All sourced reporting; no editorial endorsement of any party to this conflict is implied.